I just returned from a trip to Central America. and I offer these observations as we prepare to vote on this package of aid to the Nicaraguan election process. First. the Sandinistas are likely to win the February elections regardless of what we do to aid the opposition. Lets look at the facts: Over 200.000 Nicaraguans have left the country in the past 10 years. Some are part of the Contra resistance. Others live in refugee camps in Honduras and Costa Rica. Many have left because of political persecution or because they had little economic opportunity within Nicaragua. All of these groups represent. for the most part. antiSandinista voters who will not be allowed to participate in the upcoming elections.