Speech #990188885

at SAIS feels that the basic problems and trends highlighted by each author retain considerable analytic utility despite the gap between academic publication and the changing realities they examine. In a public appeal made on March 3. 1986. designed to generate support for a $100 million aid package for the "Contra" rebels fighting against the Sandinista regime in Nicaragua. President Ronald Reagan warned his critics that the United States was facing a "strategic disaster" of great magnitude and a "vast migration" of refugees if Congress turned down his latest request. In point of fact. as both Fagan and Aguayo emphasize. the turbulent conditions in Central America have already converted the refugee exodus from the region into a problem of major consequence for both Mexico and the United States. Indeed. with every day that the fighting in the area continues. the problem inexorably becomes more acute as more victims flee the maelstrom. There is widespread consensus among analysts of Central America that $100 million more in U.S. aid to the Nicaraguan Contras will not topple the Sandinistas. nor will it resolve the regions development problems. Quite to the contrary. new "lethal" assistance from Washington will inevitably intensify the conflcits and compound the economic and social disruption in Nicaragua and surrounding countries which lay at the heart of the mounting refugee problem in Central America. Whether justificable or not on other grounds. to argue that aid to the Contras will help prevent more refugees from appearing in the region is patently inconsistent and illogical. Although President Reagan has repeatedly made reference to "feet people" fleeing the "totalitarian" Sandinista regime (and there have undoubtedly been some). Dr. Fagens research. in particular. indicates that Nicaraguan refugees comprise only a small portion of the total number of Central Americans who have abandoned their homelands in search of personal safety and economic survival. The great bulk of the current Central American refugee population comes from El Salvador and Guatemala where internal wars. the lack of economic opportunities. and the abuses of past authoritarian military rulers have created a tidal wave of immigration out of the area. If the U.S. Congress chooses to renew its financial backing for the "Contra" war. the ISee Lou Cannon and Joanne Omang. "Reagan Warns of Disaster If Hill Bars $100 Million to Contras." the Washington Post.