Speech #970001427

See response to question 25 above. Q27. Emigration of Jews from the Soviet Union has dropped drastically in the past year and a half. Earlier in your testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. you linked the drop to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Other observers have dismissed this as a cause and have pointed to figures showing that the trend was well established before the Soviet military action even began. They believe that American lack of reaction to the Soviets sharply increasing emigration after the implementation of the JacksonVanik Amendment caused the Soviets to abandon their efforts to work within the framework of this Congressional action. Could you elaborate on your reasons for stating that the drop in emigration stemmed from the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan? A. It is true that a decline in Jewish emigration had begun in the autumn of 1979. before the invasion of Afghanistan. This decline intensified. however. following the Soviet invasion. producing a 1980 Jewish emigration total of just over 20.000 persons compared to a 1979 total of over 50.000 persons. We are in no position to know the motivations behind Politburo decisionmaking. but we can see both the drastic cut in Jewish emigration and the invasion of Afghanistan as reflections. in their different ways. of the same hardened Soviet stance toward US interests. To link the sudden decline in Jewish emigration to a Soviet perception of lack of movement on MFN alone would be to ignore other significant factors operating in USSoviet relations at the time. Q28. What actions do you intend to take to maintain the traditional American support for those who desire to emigrate from the Soviet Union? Would you be willing to continue to work within the parameters of the JacksonVanik provisions? If so. how would you measure Soviet compliance with such general guidelines and at what point would you recommend the Most Favorable Nation (MFN) trade status be granted? If after MFN was granted. emigration noticeably declined. would you recommend revocation of MFN status? A. I will. of course. do everything which is appropriate and within my power to promote free emigration from the Soviet Union. The JacksonVanik provisions represent the law of the land and I certainly will operate within its parameters. Should the Soviet record on emigration improve substantially at some future point. any recommendations I might make to the President as to whether the requirements of JacksonVanik have been met would be made in full consultation with the Congress. On the matter of possible revocation of MFN once granted. the law requires the President to report annually to the Congress on the state of compliance with the law. I would thus provide the President the most uptodate data on Soviet performance in the area of emigration so that he might make his report and his recommendation as to the continuation or revocation of MFN status for the Soviet Union. Q29. If you had been Secretary of State in 1978. would you have proposed that the United States sell 60 high performance.