Estimates of what is neededover and above normal trade and aiddiffer. The world food council estimates East Africa will require 1.1 to 1.5 million tons of cereals over the next 12 months. AID projects a need of about 941.000 tons for the 1980 crop years. The Department of Agriculture indicates that East Africa will suffer a shortfall of approximately $1.4 million tons. If there was no refugee problem and no increase In the consumption of grain in this region. the shortfall would be close to 1 million tons. With these changing conditions. however. grain import requirements could rise to as high as 2.5 million tons. It would be my hope.