Speech #1040203033

data reveal a very strong positive correlation between the probability that new arrivals belonging to a particular immigrant group receive a particular type of benefit. and the probability that earlier arrivals from the same group received that type of assistance. This correlation remains strong even after we control for the households demographic background. state of residence. and other factors. And the effect is not small. A 10 percentage point increase in the fraction of the existing immigrant stock who receive benefits from a particular program implies about a 10 per cent increase in the probability that a newly arrived immigrant will receive those benefits. This confirms anecdotal evidence. Writing in the New Democratthe mouthpiece of the Democratic Leadership CouncilNorman Matloff reports that "a popular Chineselanguage book sold in Taiwan. Hong Kong. and Chinese bookstores in the United States includes a 36page guide to SSI and other welfare benefits" and that the "World Journal. the largest Chineselanguage newspaper in the United States. runs a Dear Abbystyle column on immigration matters. with welfare dominating the discussion." And the argument that the immigrantnative "welfare gap" is caused by refugees and/ or elderly immigrants? We can check Its validity by removing from the calculations all immigrant households that either originate in countries from which refugees come or that contain any elderly persons. Result: 17.3 per cent of this narrowly defined immigrant population receives benefits. v. 13 per cent of native households that do not contain any elderly persons. Welfare gap: 4.3 percentage points (proportionately. 33 per cent). The argument that the Immigrant welfare problems is caused by refugees and the elderly is factually incorrect. Conservatives typically stress the costs of maintaining the welfare state. But we must not delude ourselves into thinking that nothing is gained from the provision of antibiotics to sick children or from giving food to poor families. At the same time. however. these welfare programs introduce a cost which current calculations of the fiscal costs and benefits of immigration do not acknowledge and which might well dwarf the current fiscal expenditures. That cost can be expressed as follows: To what extent does a generous welfare state reduce the work incentives of current immigrants. and change the nature of the immigrant flow by influencing potential immlgrants decisions to comeand to stay?