Speech #1030027339

We have no way to predict the size. length. and casualties of a peacemaking effort. All we can predict is that a credible peacemaking effort involves substantial ground forces and that it has to be able to reinforce quickly to the point where it can create facts on the ground. We also have to be fully prepared to react to the ability of the Serbian forces to rapidly redeploy their ground forces to reduce their vulnerability to ground attacks. our inability to separate targets from civilian targets. the fact that Serbian forces are already armed well enough to defeat the Moslems without major resupply. the ability of Serbian forces to escalate the fighting and take reprisals against Moslem towns. refugees. women and children. and to a similar Serbian ability to shift tactics to guerrilla and lowlevel war throughout the countryside and in small villages and enclaves where they do not need to concentrate large forces or use heavy artillery. Further. we must be prepared to deal with the fact that Moslems and Croatians are not united. and we do not face a single set of ethnic conflicts. We need to firmly understand the limitations of air power.