Understanding the dynamics of change in the former Soviet Union will. of course. continue to be vitally important for United States policymakers. Increasingly. however. our security and our role in the world will be defined by nontraditional kinds of threatsresource scarcity. overpopulation. global climate change. These nonmilitary phenomena will increasingly come to shape the dynamics of global politics as we cope with environmental refugees in the millions. with political instability spawned by scarce water supplies. by mass starvation caused by decertification. These are the forces which will define the kind of world in which we. our children. and our grandchildren will live. We desperately need to better understand these phenomena and the political forces they give rise to.
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refugees