Speech #960090320

Nigeria recently threatened to reconsider its oil sales to the United States it we were to drop sanctions and recognize ZimbabweRhodesia. Third. Mexico has made it abundantly clear that increased access to Mexican oil by the United States will probably require the United States to permit largescale immigration of unemployed Mexicans into the United States. and equally important. much more open access to the American market by Mexican manufactured and agricultural goods. Thus. in the case of Mexico. the United States will not only have to pay to Mexico $7 billion per year for every million barrels per day of oil that we import. but we will also have to shoulder the additional billions of dollars of balance of payments that will come from imported Mexican manufactured and agricultural goods. Here. there is also an indirect price tag. Increased Mexican export of manufactured goods to the United States means fewer jobs for Americans. and unless the process is carefully controlled. it also means increased unemployment and labor unrest. Finally. increased Mexican immigration in the United States also means higher demands for energy in the United States. Although every additional million immigrants from Mexico contributes in some measure to the American economy. they also obviously require additional millions of barrels of oil for the gasoline which they use to run their cars. the fuel to heat their homes. and for the energy requirements of their jobs. schooling. and so forth. Thus. increased access to Mexican oil. with its potential doublewhammy extra price tag on balance of payments. increased immigration. and import of manufactured goods. is also no simple or cheap solution to our oil requirements. What I am suggesting here is that there are big liabilities. both political and economic. to our continued dependence on imported oil. And. because of the long leadtimes required to change this situation. we are very foolish to mortgage our future to an increased extent by selling U.S. oil to Japan. and thus increasing our own future dependence on imported oil with the political price tags and indirect costs associated with it.